The Iowa Tie and the Road Ahead

The Iowa caucus has been all over the news, but you may be wondering, what the heck is a caucus and why does this one matter? The Iowa caucus is the first in the nation and therefore the first indicator of actual voter support for candidates. Polls try to predict what voters will do, but this is the first hard evidence. And Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton virtually tied in the Democratic Iowa caucus. Some have taken this as a sign of strength for Sanders, while others say it won’t be enough to launch him to the nomination. I am cautiously optimistic for his campaign. He has a difficult road ahead, but it’s not an impossible one.

But first, what is caucus? It’s basically a community meeting. How they function varies from state to state and between parties. In Iowa, the Democratic caucus requires participants to show up at a particular time and location for their precinct (there are 1,681 precincts in Iowa), and stay an hour or more. Participants physically group together by which candidate they support and are counted, so each person’s vote is publicly visible. The precincts of Iowa produce 11,065 delegates, which are then narrowed to 44 national convention delegates after further county, district, and state conventions that take place at later dates.

There has been some unnecessary hubbub that coin tosses were used to break ties. But the coin tosses only break ties for those 11,065 precinct delegates that are headed to the county convention. Coin flips are not used to determine state or national convention delegates. The ultimate effect of these coin flips, or “games of chance,” is therefore negligible and the uproar over them unwarranted. Additionally, the mistake that many of the click bait articles make is the gambler’s fallacy – the idea that future results of a random process will be affected by past results. Yes, it’s unlikely that in six coin tosses you would see see six heads. But each time they flipped a coin, there was a 50% chance it would be heads and 50% chance it would be tails. The law of large numbers dictates that in the long-term it will balance out to an equal number of heads and tails, but that has no bearing on a short-term run.

Iowa has 44 national delegates and 8 superdelegates, for a total of 52 national delegates. This is only about 2% of the total delegates needed to become the Democratic nominee. Clearly Iowa isn’t going to decide the nominee on its own, but it is a strong indicator of a candidate’s momentum.

So what does the tie imply? Until a few months ago, Hillary was polling very strongly against Bernie in Iowa. He’s clearly managed to close the gap, but the fact that he couldn’t secure victory does not bode well for his ability to ensure his supporters turn out in droves. Sanders did well in Iowa and will do well in New Hampshire because of the demographic in those states. But voters that favor him tend to cluster in areas such as college towns, a disadvantage when trying to win numerous less-populous precincts. Also, he polls very well among self-described liberals, but slightly trails Clinton for somewhat-liberal or moderates. Many of the states ahead will be more moderate. Clinton also remains the favorite for nonwhite voters, which will be a challenge for Sanders in the upcoming states.

Sanders is well ahead in New Hampshire, the first primary state, which is set to vote on February 9th (Iowa being the first caucus state). In Real Clear Politic’s average of several polls, Sanders leads Clinton in New Hampshire 55.5 to 38 as of Feb. 3. New Hampshire can be a very influential primary, shaping the media narrative and leading to national attention and increased support for the candidate who performs well there. But the next two states, Nevada (Feb. 20) and South Carolina (Feb. 27), show Clinton ahead by about 20 to 30 points. Sanders has shown he can catch up, but with time quickly dwindling it’s going to be tough.

It’s still possible for Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination, but it will take a lot of effort. He will need to encourage voter turnout, convince nonwhites that he is the better candidate, and continue to expand awareness and support of his campaign. A strong showing in New Hampshire on February 9th will certainly help improve his chances.

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